The Technium: Without a theory of intelligence
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Without a theory of intelligence
The history of science — and of progress — is a series of benefits that are direct results of new tools. A large part of our current longevity is due to the invention of the microscope. This new way of seeing opened up the microscopic world, a teeming universe we had no idea about, and from that view quickly came germ theory, and soon after, new ways to avoid many common fatal diseases. Hundreds of other advances were also birthed by the microscope, including our understanding of DNA. Similarly, the telescope not only opened the heavens to our inspection, it had a direct role in helping us devise the laws of physics, which in turn permitted harnessing the atom, developing GPS, and making cheap computers. Oscilloscopes, volt meters, barometers, cyclotrons — these are more than measuring tools; they are portals that open up new territories to be explored.
We are on the cusp of inventing a new cyclotron: artificial intelligence. Of course AI will usher in new ways to do stuff. We can offload chores we don’t want to do, but the greatest power will be in accomplishing things we had never imagined doing before. That new superpower will gradually revamp our society as we learn how best to employ it.
But a secondary revolution will come from using AI as a microscope: we will use it to see our own minds. AI will be a cyclotron that lets us inspect the mysterious particles of cognition swirling in human brains — bits that are completely invisible to us now. With this cyclotron we will be able to dissect thinking, take intelligence apart to see its components. We will be able to run endless experiments on whole and partial minds, experiments we can’t and won’t run on ourselves.
The space of possible minds in the universe is vast. Using AI as our scope, we will begin to populate that space, constructing artificial minds for specific purposes — ones that do math proofs, others for everyday robots, others to write stories, another to manage the planet’s climate. With the ability to look into minds, we can begin to build a theory of mind. Centuries ago the microscope gave us germ theory and cell theory. The telescope gave us gravity and relativity. The new scope of AI will give us a theory of intelligence.
Despite the great strides scientists have made in producing AI, we have no theory of intelligence. We don’t know how intelligence works, in humans or in machines. We don’t know what it is, or why it produces smartness. What is the smallest possible thing that will produce intelligence? We don’t know. Is there a universal ingredient shared between humans and machines? We don’t know. What is the metric for intelligence — how would we even quantify it? We don’t know. If we want more of it, what’s the formula? We don’t know. Is intelligence one thing or several — one dimension or many? We don’t know that either. Until we can predict what AI will do, we have no theory, and if we have no theory, we can never predict what AI will do. This is a problem.
Our ignorance about intelligence is vast. Take energy: does intelligence require a lot...