A Japan without ‘katsudon’? New forecast reveals 2050 heat crisis | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis
Skip to content
Your browser does not support JavaScript, or it is disabled．Please check the site policy for more information.
Language
日本語
English
HOME
What’s New
National Report
Politics
Business
Asia & World
China
Korean Peninsula
Around Asia
World
Sci & Tech
Culture
Style
Food
Movies
Manga & Anime
People
Travel
Sports
Opinion
Editorial
Vox Populi
Views
Special
The Asahi Shimbun
National Report<br>article
A Japan without ‘katsudon’? New forecast reveals 2050 heat crisis
By KEISUKE KATORI/ Senior Staff Writer
August 17, 2026 at 18:15 JST
Share
Tweet<br>list
A still from the “2050 Weather Forecast Ver. 2” video shows a map where 157 locations have recorded temperatures of 40 degrees or higher. (Provided by the 2050 Weather Forecast Production Committee)
A new video forecast for Japan in 2050 predicts a future of crippling 43-degree heat waves, midday “stay-at-home orders” and severe food shortages that could transform a simple bowl of “katsudon” into a rare luxury.
Dubbed “version 2,” the new report details a potential weather scenario for Aug. 8, 2050, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace.
Daily life would be upended.
Extreme heat is projected to trigger midday “stay-at-home orders” in cities such as Isesaki, Gunma Prefecture, where temperatures would reach 43 degrees.
Schools would close, and outdoor work on farms and construction sites would halt.
In the capital, emergency services strained by heatstroke cases would see ambulance arrival times exceed an hour, prompting public warnings to “take action to protect your life.”
The crisis would extend to the dinner table.
Global highs and drought are expected to cause raw material shortages, sending prices for livestock feed and cooking oil soaring.
The heat would also devastate the raising of dairy cows and pigs, making a hearty bowl of deep-fried pork cutlet over rice an unaffordable dish for many.
Beyond the persistent, grating heat, the report also projects acute, catastrophic events.
It warns of a powerful super typhoon with 360 kph wind gusts making landfall and unleashing a tsunami-like storm surge of more than 5 meters in Osaka Bay.
PRIOR FORECAST A REALITY
This video forecast, titled “2050 Weather Forecast Ver. 2” and released on Aug. 3, was produced by the Japan Climate Leaders’ Partnership (JCLP), a coalition of Japanese companies tackling climate change.
Revised for the first time in 12 years, the report reflects the accelerating pace of global warming since the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and global media partners created the original forecast in 2014.
Its prediction that central Tokyo would see 50 or more consecutive midsummer days by 2050 has already been shattered.
Tokyo recorded 64 such days in 2023, far exceeding what was once a distant warning.
The University of Tokyo, the National Institute for Environmental Studies, and the Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences collaborated on the updated forecast.
The project was supervised by key scientific experts, including a contributor to the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
“I hope this becomes a gateway to accelerating the decarbonization of society in order to stop climate change itself,” said professor Seita Emori, a climatologist at the University of Tokyo.
Related News
Report: ‘Once-in-a-century’ heat wave could be annual event
March 27, 2025
JMA forecast calls for another blazing hot summer ahead
February 25, 2026
Activists demand stop to Japan-funded coal plant in climate-vulnerable Bangladesh
January 29, 2022
Saudi Arabia pledges 2060 target of net-zero emissions
October 23, 2021
EDITORIAL: Record heat shows need to mount renewable energy push
August 8, 2023
Likelihood that Earth briefly hits key warming threshold grows bigger and closer
May 18, 2023
Share
Tweet<br>list
Trending Now
Last 24 hours
Last 7 days
Secondhand apartment prices on the decline in central Tokyo
A Japan without ‘katsudon’? New forecast reveals 2050 heat crisis
Takaichi drops ‘remorse’ from war speech, echoes Abe’s line
VOX POPULI: The distance that really matters when honoring your heritage
Salmon farming booms in Japan as demand jumps around Asia
Deadly Pacific vortex ‘monsoon gyre’ feared to linger for weeks
Hotel planned at railway site featured in ‘Evangelion’ film
Cabinet members visit Yasukuni, but Takaichi stays away
Japanese rice grown again in Hawaii where it once thrived
Japan eases oil supply crisis, but firms feel pain of elevated costs
Tamagotchi reborn among fourth wave of popularity
Japan kicks off debate on setting cap on number of foreign residents
Bloodbath looms for Japan’s office staff, while workforce needs laborers
Low-cost sticker developed to warn wearer of heatstroke...