Many recent grads say AI is making it harder to get a job. Economists aren't so sure
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Learning in the age of AI
Many recent grads say AI is making it harder to get a job. Economists aren't so sure
By Lee V. Gaines
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 • 5:00 AM EDT
Heard on Morning Edition
Irene Chang, 21, studied engineering in college because she enjoys solving problems. She also wanted to major in something she thought would lead to a stable career.<br>"I wanted to work a job right after college," she says.<br>But that has been a challenge. Chang graduated in May from Georgia Tech with a bachelor's degree in industrial and systems engineering. She says she started applying for entry-level data analyst roles about a year ago, while she was still in school. Chang estimates she has submitted around 450 applications since last September and has had about 19 interviews — so far she hasn't gotten any offers.<br>Jacqueline Kline, 25, is in the same boat. She graduated this past spring from Florida State University with a master's degree in communications.<br>Kline says she did everything she could to land a job after college. She networked, completed multiple internships and started applying for jobs before she even finished her degree.<br>So far, she says, she has applied to more than 500 entry-level jobs since last December.<br>"It's hard knowing that I'm doing everything that I can to be successful and feeling like that's not enough," Kline says.
Related Story: NPR<br>Both Kline and Chang say they think AI may be part of the reason that finding a job in their respective fields has been such a challenge.<br>"I feel like the entry-level skills that you have, they're important, but also something that AI can do very efficiently," Chang says.<br>According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the unemployment rate for recent graduates — which it defines as 22-to-27-year-olds with a new bachelor's degree or higher — was 5.7% as of June, more than the rate for all workers, which stands at 4.1%.<br>Many of those recent graduates think AI is to blame for their employment struggles. This year, in a survey from ZipRecruiter, 47% of them said AI had already affected hiring in their field.<br>But is AI really the problem, or is it more complicated? Here's what economists have to say.<br>How AI may be impacting the entry-level job market
Stanford University economist Erik Brynjolfsson says AI is impacting the labor market for entry-level roles.<br>"AI is not the whole story, but it's part of the story and the evidence is building," he says.
Related Story: NPR<br>Using payroll data, Brynjolfsson and his co-authors found that since late 2022 — when large language models like ChatGPT started popping up — early-career workers ages 22 to 25 in AI-exposed roles, like software developers and marketing managers, have experienced a 16% relative employment decline.<br>In comparison, employment rates for older workers in AI-exposed fields and for all workers in jobs that aren't easily automated — like home health aides, physical therapists and construction workers — remained stable or have grown over that same time period.<br>Brynjolfsson says there are two reasons young workers in AI-exposed fields may be feeling the job crunch more than others. First, because young workers typically bear the brunt of economic contractions — when companies choose to shed employees or pull back on hiring — junior roles often get cut first.<br>Second, Brynjolfsson says, large language models are trained on codified knowledge — information that has been written down in a textbook or document. "That has a lot of overlap with entry-level people," he says, because it's the same type of knowledge that inexperienced college graduates rely on when they're getting started in the workforce.<br>But AI models lack the wisdom that comes with on-the-job experience or tacit knowledge that isn't written down.<br>"So for more senior workers, their kind of knowledge is not as affected," Brynjolfsson says, adding that they don't need to compete with AI as much.<br>Or is remote work to blame?
Harvard University economist David Deming isn't convinced that AI is to blame for the challenging early-career job market.
Related Story: NPR<br>"If you look very carefully at the timing, it looks like the decline in junior hiring actually started a bit like six months before ChatGPT was released. And so what that tells me is it's something else," Deming says. "I think it's more like remote work."<br>A recent analysis from the New York Fed found that companies are less likely to hire recent college grads into roles that can be done remotely. As remote jobs increased following the COVID-19 pandemic, so did unemployment among younger college grads, the New York Fed found.<br>The analysis also found that AI didn't explain the rise in unemployment among younger workers and that remote work was more of a driving force.<br>Deming says hiring an entry-level worker requires companies to invest time and resources to get them up to speed. Employers...