SNAP restrictions led to 12% drop in soda purchases, study says | STAT

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Health

Americans bought 12% less soda under new SNAP restrictions, study says

SNAP bans on soda and candy are a major talking point of the Make America Healthy Again movement

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The drop in soda purchases isn’t huge, but it is meaningful, one of the study’s authors said.Joe Raedle/Getty Images

By Sarah Todd<br>Aug. 24, 2026

Reporter, Commercial Determinants of Health

Sarah Todd

[email protected]

Sarah covers how industries like food and tobacco affect Americans’ bodies and minds. Her interests include ultra-processed foods; smoke-free tobacco; and wellness trends like perimenopause products and peptides. Confidential tips can be sent on Signal at sarahlizchar.47.

New restrictions on the use of food benefits to purchase soda and candy have been one of the biggest changes enacted by the Make America Healthy Again movement. But a key question has been how profoundly the bans would affect public health, with some economists arguing that people would just use other funds to buy Coke and other sugary drinks instead.

Now a new study shows that soda purchases did indeed fall by about 12% among people who receive Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program benefits after the bans went into effect in 10 states. The study, which was published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and has not yet been peer-reviewed, says this translates to a person drinking about 34 fewer 12-ounce cans of soda per year.<br>Advertisement

That’s not huge, according to the study’s authors, but it’s far from nothing.

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“If the goal is to reduce obesity, reduce the cases of diabetes caused by people being overweight and overconsuming sugary beverages, this is probably one part of a broader set of policies,” said Matt Notowidigdo, an economics professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business who co-authored the study.

The study was supported by a grant from Bloomberg Philanthropies, which has worked to tax sugary beverages in the U.S. and elsewhere. Bloomberg Philanthropies also contributes funding to STAT but is not involved in STAT’s editorial decisions.<br>Advertisement

So far, 23 states have received waivers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to implement restrictions on soda, candy, and other so-called junk food, though the restrictions vary by state. The bans are currently suspended in five of those states under orders from a federal judge.

Soda and other sugar-sweetened beverages are responsible for about 1 million new cases of heart disease and 2 million new cases of type 2 diabetes worldwide each year, according to a 2025 study published in Nature Medicine. The NBER study’s authors estimate that the drop in soda consumption because of the restrictions would reduce the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by 2.6% over the next 10 years, amounting to about 34,000 fewer new cases in the U.S.

“It leads to a billion dollars of savings for the health care system,” Notowidigdo said. “Given how big the health care system is, it’s a drop in the bucket. On the other hand, it’s $1 billion a year.” The U.S. spent about $5.3 trillion on health care in 2024.

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The study’s authors used data from the first six months of 2026 on grocery purchases in 15,000 households using SNAP benefits, of which 3,291 were in 10 states that had implemented new restrictions. That data, while useful, may not be representative of the broader population of SNAP recipients, said Benjamin Chrisinger, an assistant professor of community health at Tufts University, via email.

Another important caveat noted by the study’s authors: SNAP recipients used up to 39% of the money that they didn’t spend on soda to purchase other sugary drinks and fruit...